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Southampton's Economy Predicted To Be In Top 10 Following Brexit, Says New Study

City Boosted By Transport Links, World Class Universities And Technology Sector

07.05.2019

David Shirt, Press Officer | 0161 838 3094

The local economy in Southampton is expected to be in the top 10 for both GVA* growth and job creation 12 months after the UK’s expected departure from the EU, says a new report.

The UK Powerhouse study by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), predicts that in 2020 Q4, annual GVA growth for Southampton will be 1.8% putting it in 6th place in the study’s league table.

It is in 8th position for job employment growth with headcount expected to increase by 1.5% to 169,000 people.

The forecasts are based on the assumption that an amended version of the Brexit withdrawal agreement will form the basis of the future UK – EU relationship. It also assumes a transitional arrangement will be put in place that allows a continuation of the current relationship without any major disruptions until at least 2021.

The report says that Southampton’s economy will outperform Portsmouth and Bournemouth in terms of both GVA and employment growth in the 12 months to 2020 Q4. It also predicts that Southampton’s economy will be 20% bigger than it is currently by the end of 2028.

Expert Opinion
“This report paints a positive picture for Southampton in terms of output and job growth. Brexit has undoubtedly created a great deal of uncertainty for businesses.

“However, looking to the future it is clear that the Southampton economy is in a good place to weather the storm long term largely as a result of its international travel and transport links, its geographic features, its world class universities and its established technology sector. Our latest study highlights this resilience and should give us confidence that in the 12 months following the expected date for leaving the EU the Southampton economy will grow at a relatively fast rate.”
Hannah Clipston, Partner

Methodology note

All forecasts in this report utilise Cebr’s central scenario. Cebr’s central forecasts are based on the assumption that an amended version of the Brexit withdrawal agreement will form the basis of the future UK – EU relationship. We further assume that a transitional arrangement will be put in place that allows a continuation of the current relationship without any major disruptions until at least 2021. On the immigration policy, we rely on the lower immigration population estimates assuming that a visa system will be implemented for EU nationals, but that the requirements (e.g. the minimum salary, the NHS surcharge payment, the application fees, etc.) would be more relaxed than they currently are for non-EU nationals requiring a visa.

* Gross value added