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UK Powerhouse

Our quarterly economic growth report charting the regional effects of economic policy for businesses across the UK

Key Findings Q3 2018 and Brexit

GDP growth continues in Q3

Between Q2 and Q3 2018 the UK economy grew by 0.6%, the fastest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2016. In the year to Q3 however, GDP growth stood at 1.5%.

Unemployment sees little change

The unemployment rate was 4.1% on average across the country in Q3, but down by 147,000 year-on-year.

GVA growth

Cambridge, Reading, Oxford, Milton Keynes and Ipswich saw the fastest gross value added (GVA) growth rate in Q3. Across all cities, none grew more than 2.3%.

London

Inner London and the outer boroughs are set to see the highest rise in employment growth. This is expected to continue to Q3 2019 despite Brexit outcomes.

No-deal Brexit scenario

In case of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, GDP and business investment growth are expected to see a sharp decline in the short-term with GDP decreasing by 0.2% and business investment by 8.4%.

Brexit ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ accepted by EU

If the Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement is accepted we should see a more stable adjustment period for macro-economic factors like GDP growth, employment and investments.

Household consumption grows

Household consumption grew by 0.5% over Q3 with people spending more on various goods and services but a decline in car sales saw lower spending on transport.

Business investment decreases

Business investment decreased by 1.1% from Q2 to Q3 2018, the third quarter-on-quarter fall in business investment.

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