Edinburgh Among Top Ten Cities In The UK By 2023

A new economic report places Edinburgh in the top ten best performing cities for economic output and employment by the end of 2023 but reveals mixed fortunes ahead for Aberdeen and Glasgow.

According to Irwin Mitchell’s latest UK Powerhouse report, produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), Edinburgh will rise from being among the bottom five cities in the UK for economic output in Q4 2021, to 8^th place by Q4 2023, with a 2.2% year-on-year increase in GVA*. This equates to £900m of growth and takes the total size of the economy to £23.2 billon.

A more modest increase in employment will see Edinburgh move from 13^th place in Q4 2021 to 9^th in Q4 2023, with 2% year-on-year growth set to deliver 14,000 new jobs.

Edinburgh’s strong recovery next year is in marked contrast to Aberdeen. According to the report, the Granite City was the best performing Scottish city in Q4 2021 but by Q4 2023, it had moved to bottom place for economic output and year-on-year employment growth of just 1.2%.

Glasgow delivers the more consistent performance of the Scottish cities in the study’s league tables, moving up 12 places to 21^st for economic output in Q4 2023 and a modest improvement in employment seeing the city move up one place to 17^th in 2023, creating 12,300 new jobs.

The reversal of fortune for a city like Aberdeen reflects a pattern outlined in the report for slower growth in those cities with declining industries and this is borne out by Aberdeen’s oil-driven economy set to grow just 1.3% by Q4 2023.

With eight of the UK’s fastest growing cities in Q4 2023 set to be in the South and East of England, the report also highlights Foreign Direct Investment* (FDI) as one of the reasons for continued success being located in the South.

Edinburgh is one of only two cities to buck the trend and in addition to Scotland’s placing 5^th for the number of FDI projects, the country is also among those seeing the biggest reduction in the number of FDI projects when compared to Southern rivals.

With much FDI centred around financial services, it is also clear from the report that those cites with the ability to cater for this vital sector are among those continuing to perform well.

Bryan Bletso, partner and Head of International at Irwin Mitchell, said: “On the face of it, the transformation of fortunes between Aberdeen and Edinburgh is eye catching, but should come as no surprise.

“Edinburgh is another city with a large financial services sector which is predicted to do well, versus those cities with economies centred on manufacturing or declining industries.

“Part of this is bound up with the importance of attracting FDI to improve the long term economic outlook and the report highlights the fact that how well this can be done will show how far the levelling up agenda can become a reality.”