Doncaster, Wakefield And Rotherham Amongst The Fastest Growers In Terms Of Output

A new economic study has revealed that Yorkshire’s towns & cities will all be showing rapid recovery rates at the same time as the government’s extended furlough scheme comes to an end next year.

The latest UK Powerhouse report by law firm Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), says that the average annual GVA* growth in the second quarter of 2021 across all locations is expected to be 23%.

The report however reveals some locations such as Doncaster, Wakefield and Rotherham will record year-on-year GVA growth of over 25% with Doncaster leading the way at 29.6%. Hull is expected to register 25.8%, Sheffield (24.3%), York (23.4%) and Leeds (20.6%).

The study, which assumes a substantial proportion of the UK population will have received a Covid-19 vaccine by the middle of next year, highlights a disjoint between the increase in output and employment growth.

Despite rapid GVA growth, all but one of the Yorkshire locations in the study are expected see employment levels fall in Q2 2021. York is expected to see employment growth of 0.3% but despite Doncaster’s high GVA figure, the report anticipates that year-on-year employment levels will fall by 8.4%.

Looking ahead to the end of next year, Doncaster, Wakefield and Rotherham maintain their top 10 positions for GVA.

Interestingly, the report finds that the cities in the south of England are expected to emerge from the crisis with the most in-tact labour markets with nine out of the 10 locations for the highest job creation being located in the south.

Expert Opinion

“Although the labour market is likely to take a hit when the government’s furlough scheme comes to an end, there are some encouraging signs that the economy in Yorkshire will perform better next year and employment levels will start to recover.

“The report does however paint a mixed picture for the region with locations such as Wakefield, Doncaster and Hull, performing well next year but Leeds struggling in the bottom five.

“It is striking that the southern city economies are set to recover more quickly than the rest of the country in terms of employment growth. In the last three months of 2021, job creation rates in places like Reading, Exeter and Oxford are predicted to be twice as high as the large Yorkshire cities of Leeds and Sheffield.

“The government has talked a lot recently about its levelling up agenda but it’s time for action, not more words.”
Paddy Sturman - Partner & National Head of Banking and Finance

Josie Dent, Managing Economist at Cebr said: “The decision by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to extend the furlough scheme has saved hundreds of thousands of jobs. The impact of the ending of the scheme in March 2021 is expected to be far smaller than it would have been in October 2020, as there is considerable hope that in Spring 2020 the virus will be much more containable. By the end of next year, all Powerhouse cities are expected to be in recovery-phase, with positive annual GVA growth forecast across the board in Q4 2021.”