Manufacturing Sector To Be Most Disrupted By Brexit

Birmingham had the fastest growing economy outside of the South East and East of England during the second quarter of 2019, according to a new report published today.

According to the UK Powerhouse report by Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economic & Business Research (Cebr), the Birmingham economy saw year-on-year GVA growth of 1.5% in Q2 2019, placing it on the top 10.

The report said the city centre is in the midst of a construction boom, and 2019 is set to be a record breaking year for office completions.  UK Powerhouse highlights that many businesses have been moving into the new space, including HSBC, and adds that the tech sector is also one of several sectors contributing to growth with around 3,000 businesses contributing over £2 billion to the city’s economy.

Looking further ahead, the report expects that the size of Birmingham’s economy will grow by 16.9% over the next decade and that headcount will increase by 12.5%.

This quarterly edition of the report also includes a ‘Brexit Disruption Index’ which analyses which industrial sectors will be affected most after the UK leaves the EU.

It bases its predictions by analysing the change to three key indicators - the free movement of labour, tariffs on exports to the EU and investment into the UK from the EU – and assumes that a deal will eventually be agreed.

According to the study, the manufacturing industry will face more disruption as a result of Brexit than any other sector.

Manufacturing has an index score of 90% and the report says that even if a deal is secured the sector will contract by 0.8% in 2020, down from a fall of 0.5% this year.

Expert Opinion

“This report paints a mixed picture for Birmingham. It’s good news of course that the city performed well in the second quarter of this year, however the Brexit Disruption Index highlights the challenges that lie ahead for the manufacturing sector, and this will no doubt have an impact on the wider West Midlands region.” Chris Rawstron - Partner