South Yorkshire Town Will Bounce Back Better Than Local Rivals

A new report predicts that Doncaster will lead South Yorkshire’s economic revival in 2021, with the projected Covid-19 vaccine set to give a shot in the arm to the town’s growth prospects.

The UK Powerhouse report prepared by Irwin Mitchell and the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), projects that Doncaster will be in the top three cities in the UK by annual GVA* growth by the fourth quarter of 2021, leaving South Yorkshire rivals like Sheffield, Barnsley and Rotherham trailing in its wake.

Despite Doncaster having experienced a severe economic contraction in 2020, with an 11.7% annual fall in GVA by the third quarter of this year, the town is forecast to bounce back in the New Year, with 9.2% annual growth by the fourth quarter.

While the service sector has had a tough time during lockdown, Doncaster has large businesses set to drive the local recovery, such as Trackwork, a provider of construction and engineering services to the rail network.

With a Covid-19 vaccine set to improve the economic outlook as the country returns to a ‘new normal’, Doncaster is expected to come top of UK cities by annual GVA growth in the second quarter of next year with an increase of 29.6%, followed in fourth place by Rotherham and Sheffield in 15^th place in the UK league table on 24.3%.

Source: UK Powerhouse

The job market everywhere will be one of the last to recover and the town will be outside the top 20 in the second quarter in terms of employment prospects. By the fourth quarter, Doncaster’s annual increase in output will have slipped to 9.2%, but still leaving it in a respectable third place overall. Rotherham will be in 8^th place on 8.1%, with Sheffield in 26^th place on 7.1%.

For employment, Rotherham comes top regionally, on 6.2% and Doncaster just behind, also with 6.2% growth in employment year on year; 18^th and 19^th place respectively nationally. By comparison, Sheffield is lower down on 4.8%.

Expert Opinion

“The Sheffield City Region (SCR) has ambitious plans for economic growth in the years ahead and it is interesting that traditional based industries based on Doncaster are projected to lead South Yorkshire out of the coronavirus induced downturn.

“The chancellor has spoken much of a ‘levelling up’ of the economy and with the exception of Doncaster; the Powerhouse report predicts it is cities in the south of the county who will recover fastest from coronavirus in 2021.

“The SCR has done a lot of work to prepare the ground for economic revival and we hope to see the chancellor back his words with action in offering practical support to northern cities and towns hardest hit by the perfect storm of pandemic induced economic damage, lockdown and Brexit.

“Employment will take time to recover across the region, yet the projected GVA performance of Doncaster shows it is possible to unlock the potential of our towns and cities and deliver strategic economic growth for the region as a whole in the long term.” Dorrien Peters - Partner