Latest From UK Powerhouse Report

The city economy of Leeds is on course to be £184m larger by the end of 2017 than it was in the three months after the EU referendum result, according to a new study by law firm Irwin Mitchell.

The UK Powerhouse report, produced for Irwin Mitchell by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), predicts that the value of goods and services produced in Leeds will grow by 0.6% during 2017. 

Irwin Mitchell’s report forecasts that by the end of 2017, the value of the Leeds’ economy will be £184m larger than it was in the three months following the Brexit vote. It expects employment levels to be 3,700 higher.

Although Leeds’ economy is set to grow in 2017, it will be at a much slower rate than in the 12 months to Q3 2016 when it posted growth of 2.4%. 

The study also revealed that not one of the top 10 fastest growing cities in 2017 will be in the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ region with places such as Greater Manchester and Sheffield  expected to post GVA* growth of 0.7% during 2017.

According to the report, Cambridge, Oxford and Milton Keynes will be the fastest growing economies in 2017, although their expansion rates will be significantly lower than they were in the three months immediately after the EU referendum vote. The economies of Swansea, Belfast and Middlesbrough are expected to expand at the slowest rate in 2017.

Expert Opinion

“Leeds performed strongly in the three months following the referendum result but we expect the continually unfolding political events to impact on growth over the next 12 months.

“Challenges do however bring opportunities and exporters in West Yorkshire are taking advantage of their hedged import costs compared to forex rates. Also, the Government’s pledge of £15m to support Northern Powerhouse trade missions and £7m to establish a Northern Powerhouse Investment Taskforce is a huge step in the right direction and will help ensure the economy is firing on all cylinders in a post-Brexit Britain.”
Andrew Walker - Partner

Jack Coy, an economist at Cebr, said: “The delayed effects of Brexit have been in the pipeline for a while and there will be some difficult economic pressures in 2017. These are likely to be felt throughout cities across the UK, and threaten to slow growth in the short and medium term. For example, rising inflation under a sharply depreciated pound challenges profits for producers nationwide.

“With consumer spending also sapped by rising prices, and a labour market which has probably passed its peak, growth may slow across the country. Retail hubs such as Leeds may also see spending growth soften, while consumers rein in budgets.”